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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd