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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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