A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
